Western Cape Property Market to Continue Leading Growth in 2026 Despite Affordability Concerns
Economics Desk
– March 14, 2026
3 min read
The Western Cape’s residential property market is expected to maintain its position as the leading performer in South Africa in 2026, outpacing other provinces in both house price and rental growth, despite growing concerns over affordability.
This is according to an analysis from an independent economist, John Loos.
Loos says that for years, the Western Cape has experienced a strong influx of skilled and affluent households, particularly from Gauteng, in what is commonly known as "semigration". Loos says while some have suggested that this trend might reverse, the evidence does not support a significant shift. The Western Cape continues to attract skilled workers due to its better infrastructure, job opportunities, and overall quality of life, even as housing prices in Cape Town climb higher.
Loos’s long-term data show that the province’s house prices have risen by 179.6% since 2010, significantly outpacing other major housing markets such as Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, which saw increases of 79.7% and 76.7%, respectively. Similarly, residential rental prices in the Western Cape have increased by 128.6%, compared to 63.8% in Gauteng and 76.9% in KwaZulu-Natal. However, despite the steep rise in costs, there is little indication that migration patterns are reversing, with ongoing inflows of middle-to-high-income households.
His numbers also show that short-term house prices in the Western Cape continue to lift strongly.
House prices grew by 9.3% year-on-year in 2025, compared to 3.8% in Gauteng and 2.7% in KwaZulu-Natal. Residential rental inflation in the Western Cape was similarly strong at 5.4%, while the two other provinces lagged behind at 3.3% and 1.5%, respectively.
As Cape Town’s property market becomes increasingly pricy, a rising number of prospective buyers are looking towards other regions in the Western Cape province, such as the Southern Cape and the West Coast. This shift is expected to contribute to continued outperformance in those areas.
The broader shift in migration patterns within the province signals that other towns, such as George and Mossel Bay, may increasingly benefit from semigration trends. This suggests that while Cape Town remains a top destination for skilled households, the surrounding areas are poised for substantial property market growth in the coming years.
